Election forecast

Stephen Fisher, Fellow and Tutor in Political Sociology, will give a presentation at the British Election Study conference in Westminster on 9 December, in which he will suggest that the Lib Dems may be facing a greater wipe out at the next election than previously predicted.

The paper seeks to identify the main patterns of variation across constituencies in party performance and discusses their potential implications for possible seat outcomes. The Liberal Democrats seem to be losing most support in seats where their support has previously been strongest.

The findings illustrate the potential wonders of the first-past-the-post electoral system. In his conclusion, Dr Fisher suggests that it is likely that UKIP will become the third largest party in votes, followed by the Liberal Democrats and then perhaps the Greens before the SNP. But of these four parties the SNP might be both smallest on votes and the largest on seats. Both the SNP and the Liberal Democrats are set to win more seats despite fewer votes than UKIP.

Posted: 9 December 2014

Stephen Fisher